It has become a consistent feature in the
Nigerian
news media that every week, we are treated
to news
of human lives decimated by Boko Haram;
human
casualties in such numbers that would make
casualty
figures in war ravaged Syria a child’s play.
However,
much more consistent is the government’s
(or more
precisely the presidency’s) continual
insistence it is
winning the war on terror. The government’s
insistence is in spite of the many civilian
and/or
military casualties after each attack.
Earlier in the week, Boko Haram attacked
Borno,
leaving scores dead and with at least 20
young girls
as captives. The governor of the state ran to
the
presidency. After the meeting with the
president, he
told journalist he had made it clear to the
president
that Boko Haram is better equipped and
better
motivated than the Nigerian military. Dr.
Doyin
Okupe, President Jonathan’s aide on Public
Affairs
took exception to this and declared that
Governor
Shettima is wrong and that his statement “is
based
purely on a civilian perception of the
situation at
hand” adding that “It is clear that Governor
Shettima
does not have the expertise to categorise or
classify
the effectiveness of any weapon”. Less than
24 hours
after Okupe’s tough talk, Boko Haram struck
again
with a heavier casualty figure.
Is the FG really winning the war against
terror? To
determine success or failure, one needs a
measurable
property to serve as a basis for the
determination.
Okupe cited budgetary provisions,
participation in
other peace keeping operations, a subjective
statement that the Nigerian military is
better armed
in all of Africa, but he failed woefully to
give objective
evidence that would show us the FG is
indeed
winning. Defence may have taken over a
N1tr (22
percent) of 2013 budget but how was it
spent? The
military may have been successful in
international
operations but need we remind Okupe how
Nigerians
excel at the international arena only to
come and fail
at home? (It is the environment I guess). Is
the
Nigerian military really better armed in
Africa?
Wouldyou mind telling us who did the
comparative
analysis of the armament of militaries of
African
nations? As someone on the street, a small
man
without Dr. Okupe’s level of security
clearance to
eavesdrop on the jo-jo the military top brass
normally have with the president and their
Commander-in-Chief Dr.
Goodluck Ebele Jonathan
GCFR, I believe (as many would) the
following should
be the basis for judging whether FG is
winning the
war or not:
1. Is there a reduction in the frequency of
attacks by
Boko Haram?
2. Is there a reduction in the severity of
each of these
attacks when they occur? Note: I choose to
use ‘when’
deliberately.
3. Are (at least some of) the leaders and
commanders
of the group known, arrested, prosecuted,
convicted?
4. Does the military have intel on all or some
of the
masterminds and sponsors of the group? Do
we have
any of them in custody?
5. How many convictions do we have against
arrested
members of the group?
For the truly observant, the answers to all of
these five
or so questions are not palatable.
The
frequency of
attacks has reduced to a steady, almost
predictable
state. The severity on the other hand seems
to have
witnessed a steady rise and thereby
effectively
nullifies any gains of the reduction in
frequency. If
they used to attack 3 times a week with only
3 dead,
but now attacks once a week with 5 dead, is
the
reduction in frequency meaningful? Apart
from the
over all head, Mallam Shekau, who else is
known as
leader in the group?
Some may argue that info is
classified; how then do we help government
if we
don’t know who they are looking for? No
body talks of
the sponsors and as for convictions, I know
of only
Kabiru Sokoto. Looking at these and bearing
in mind
that Boko Haram has easily ran down a
military base,
took out 5 fighter jets (decommissioned or
not),
leveled an entire village without resistance
from the
military and coupled with the fact that every
claim by
the military of casualties on Boko Haram’s
side
almost always results in claims that the
casualties
were in fact unarmed civilians killed and
tagged Boko
Haram all tend to suggest Boko Haram may
be
having the upper hand; not necessarily by
design but
(following Gov Shettima’s thinking) the
unserious
and insincere attitude of the presidency.
For example, if the N1tr budgeted for
defence in 2013
was Dr. Okupe’s personal investment in a
company,
would he have accepted the performance of
the
military as satisfactory?
We know and appreciate this
is not a conventional warfare but if after six
months
and counting of emergency rule a lesser
armed and
motivated group (according to Okupe) will
operate
conveniently in a village for up to 2 or more
hours
without resistance from the authorities, then
something is wrong. I agree with Dr. Okupe,
our
military performs excellently when on
international
assignments, but what is happening here? It
is the
same people, the same kind of assignment;
it is the
operating environment that differs and that
environment is created by the presidency. If
I
remember well, by the fourth quarter of last
year, it
was revealed the defence third quarter
allocation was
still an expectation, that’s the environment.
Nigeria is a country of unknown definite
population
figure, but let’s assume it’s 170 million (as
many
believe), so 50 deaths may seem
infinitesimal. But
Okupe is said to be (should be or is
supposed to be) a
medical doctor as such he knows (or should
know)
that if a doctor operates several patients in
a day and
only one dies, an audit MUST be done to
know why
that patient died. While is it different with
the
victims of Boko Haram.
Why is the federal
government not asking the hard questions?
It still surprises me how Dr. Okupe can with
all
seriousness and honour say the Federal
government is
winning the war on terror? But if he insists,
his
statement is correct and Shettima’s wrong,
then I ask
of two things from him:
(1) To make public the indices he is using to
measure
performance so we can also do our little
beer parlour/
okada group assessment,
(2) He should go on a one month sabbatical
with his
family to Borno, Adamawa or Yobe. If after
the one
month sabbatical he does not cry out like
Gov
Shettima, then I’ll use his own very words,
“call me a
bastard”.
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